1961
1961 Letter
BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD.
810 KIEWIT PLAZA
OMAHA 31, NEBRASKA
January 24, 1962
Our Performance in 1961
I have consistently told partners that it is my expectation and hope (it's always hard to tell which is which) that
we will do relatively well compared to the general market in down or static markets, but that we may not look so
good in advancing markets. In strongly advancing markets I expect to have real difficulty keeping up with the
general market.
Although 1961 was certainly a good year for the general market, and in addition, a very good year for us on both
an absolute and relative basis, the expectations in the previous paragraph remain unchanged.
During 1961, the general market as measured by the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (hereinafter called the
“Dow”) showed an over-all gain of 22.2% including dividends received through ownership of the Dow.
The
gain for all partnerships operating throughout the entire year, after all expenses of operation, but before
payments to limited partners or accrual to the general partner, averaged 45.9%. The details of this gain by
partnership are shown in the appendix along with results for the partnerships started during the year.
We have now completed five full years of partnership operation, and the results of these five years are shown
below on a year-by-year basis and also on a cumulative or compounded basis.
These results are stated on the
basis described in the preceding paragraph; after expenses, but
before
division of gains among partners or
payments to partners.
Year
Partnerships Operating Entire
Year
Partnership Gain
Dow-Jones Industrials
Gain*
1957
3
10.4%
-8.4%
1958
5
40.9%
38.5%
1959
6
25.9%
19.9%
1960
7
22.8%
-6.3%
1961
7
45.9%
22.2%
- Including dividends received through ownership of the Dow.
On a compounded basis, the cumulative results have been:
Year
Partnership Gain
Dow-Jones Industrials Gain
1957
10.4%
-8.4%
1957-58
55.6%
26.9%
1057-59
95.9%
52.2%
1957-60
140.6%
42.6%
1957-61
251.0%
74.3%
These results do not measure the gain to the limited partner, which of course, is the figure in which you are most
interested.
Because of the varying partnership arrangements that have existed in the past, I have used the over-
all net gain (based on market values at the beginning and end of the year) to the partnership as being the fairest
measure of over-all performance.
17 On a pro-forma basis adjusted to the division of gains entailed in our present Buffett Partnership, Ltd.
agreement, the results would have been:
Year
Limited Partners’ Gain
Dow Gain
1957
9.3%
-8.4%
1958
32.2%
38.5%
1959
20.9%
19.9%
1960
18.6%
-6.3%
1961
35.9%
22.2%
COMPOUNDED
1957
9.3%
-8.4%
1957-58
44.5%
26.9%
1957-59
74.7%
52.2%
1957-60
107.2%
42.6%
1957-61
181.6%
74.3%
A Word About Par
The outstanding item of importance in my selection of partners, as well as in my subsequent relations with them,
has been the determination that we use the same yardstick. If my performance is poor, I expect partners to
withdraw, and indeed, I should look for a new source of investment for my own funds.
If performance is good, I
am assured of doing splendidly, a state of affairs to which I am sure I can adjust.
The rub, then, is in being sure that we all have the same ideas of what is good and what is poor. I believe in
establishing yardsticks prior to the act; retrospectively, almost anything can be made to look good in relation to
something or other.
I have continuously used the Dow-Jones Industrial Average as our measure of par. It is my feeling that three
years is a very minimal test of performance, and the best test consists of a period at least that long where the
terminal level of the Dow is reasonably close to the initial level.
While the Dow is not perfect (nor is anything else) as a measure of performance, it has the advantage of being
widely known, has a long period of continuity, and reflects with reasonable accuracy the experience of investors
generally with the market.
I have no objection to any other method of measurement of general market
performance being used, such as other stock market averages, leading diversified mutual stock funds, bank
common trust funds, etc.
You may feel I have established an unduly short yardstick in that it perhaps appears quite simple to do better
than an unmanaged index of 30 leading common stocks. Actually, this index has generally proven to be a
reasonably tough competitor. Arthur Wiesenberger’s classic book on investment companies lists performance
for the 15 years 1946-60, for all leading mutual funds. There is presently over $20 billion invested in mutual
funds, so the experience of these funds represents, collectively, the experience of many million investors.
My
own belief, though the figures are not obtainable, is that portfolios of most leading investment counsel
organizations and bank trust departments have achieved results similar to these mutual funds.
Wiesenberger lists 70 funds in his “Charts & Statistics” with continuous records since 1946. I have excluded 32
of these funds for various reasons since they were balanced funds (therefore not participating fully in the general
market rise), specialized industry funds, etc. Of the 32 excluded because I felt a comparison would not be fair,
18 31 did poorer than the Dow, so they were certainly not excluded to slant the conclusions below.
Of the remaining 38 mutual funds whose method of operation I felt was such as to make a comparison with the
Dow reasonable, 32 did poorer than the Dow, and 6 did better. The 6 doing better at the end of 1960 had assets
of about $1 billion, and the 32 doing poorer had assets of about $6-1/2 billion.
None of the six that were superior
beat the Dow by more than a few percentage points a year.
Below I present the year-by-year results for our period of operation (excluding 1961 for which I don't have exact
data, although rough figures indicate no variance from the 1957-60 figures) for the two largest common stock
open-end investment companies (mutual funds) and the two largest closed-end investment companies:
Year
Mass. Inv.
Trust
Investors
Stock
Lehman
Tri-Cont.
Dow
Limited
Partners
1957
-12.0%
-12.4%
-11.4%
-2.4%
-8.4%
9.3%
1958
44.1%
47.6%
40.8%
33.2%
38.5%
32.2%
1959
8.2%
10.3%
8.1%
8.4%
19.9%
20.9%
1960
-0.9%
-0.1%
2.6%
2.8%
-6.3%
18.6%
(From Moody’s Banks & Finance Manual, 1961)
COMPOUNDED
Year
Mass.
Inv.
Trust
Investors
Stock
Lehman
Tri-Cont.
Dow
Limited
Partners
1957
-12.0%
-12.4%
-11.4%
-2.4%
-8.4%
9.3%
1957-58
26.8%
29.3%
24.7%
30.0%
26.9%
44.5%
1957-59
37.2%
42.6%
34.8%
40.9%
52.2%
74.7%
1957-60
36.0%
42.5%
38.3%
44.8%
42.6%
107.2%
Massachusetts Investors Trust has net assets of about $1.8 billion; Investors Stock Fund about $1 billion; Tri
-Continental Corporation about $ .5 billion; and Lehman Corporation about $350 million; or a total of over $3.5
billion.
I do not present the above tabulations and information with the idea of indicting investment companies. My own
record of investing such huge sums of money, with restrictions on the degree of activity I might take in
companies where we had investments, would be no better, if as good.
I present this data to indicate the Dow as
an investment competitor is no pushover, and the great bulk of investment funds in the country are going to have
difficulty in bettering, or perhaps even matching, its performance.
Our portfolio is very different from that of the Dow. Our method of operation is substantially different from that
of mutual funds.
However, most partners, as all alternative to their investment in the partnership, would probably have their funds
invested in a media producing results comparable to the Dow, therefore, I feel it is a fair test of performance.
Our Method of Operation
Our avenues of investment break down into three categories. These categories have different behavior
characteristics, and the way our money is divided among them will have an important effect on our results,
relative to the Dow in any given year.
The actual percentage division among categories is to some degree
planned, but to a great extent, accidental, based upon availability factors.
19 The first section consists of generally undervalued securities (hereinafter called "generals") where we have
nothing to say about corporate policies and no timetable as to when the undervaluation may correct itself. Over
the years, this has been our largest category of investment, and more money has been made here than in either of
the other categories. We usually have fairly large positions (5% to 10% of our total assets) in each of five or six
generals, with smaller positions in another ten or fifteen.
Sometimes these work out very fast; many times they take years. It is difficult at the time of purchase to know
any specific reason why they should appreciate in price. However, because of this lack of glamour or anything
pending which might create immediate favorable market action, they are available at very cheap prices.
A lot of
value can be obtained for the price paid. This substantial excess of value creates a comfortable margin of safety
in each transaction. This individual margin of safety, coupled with a diversity of commitments creates a most
attractive package of safety and appreciation potential. Over the years our timing of purchases has been
considerably better than our timing of sales. We do not go into these generals with the idea of getting the last
nickel, but are usually quite content selling out at some intermediate level between our purchase price and what
we regard as fair value to a private owner.
The generals tend to behave market-wise very much in sympathy with the Dow. Just because something is cheap
does not mean it is not going to go down. During abrupt downward movements in the market, this segment may
very well go down percentage-wise just as much as the Dow.
Over a period of years, I believe the generals will
outperform the Dow, and during sharply advancing years like 1961, this is the section of our portfolio that turns
in the best results. It is, of course, also the most vulnerable in a declining market.
Our second category consists of “work-outs.”
These are securities whose financial results depend on corporate
action rather than supply and demand factors created by buyers and sellers of securities. In other words, they are
securities with a timetable where we can predict, within reasonable error limits, when we will get how much and
what might upset the applecart. Corporate events such as mergers, liquidations, reorganizations, spin-offs, etc.,
lead to work-outs. An important source in recent years has been sell-outs by oil producers to major integrated oil
companies.
This category will produce reasonably stable earnings from year to year, to a large extent irrespective of the
course of the Dow.
Obviously, if we operate throughout a year with a large portion of our portfolio in work-
outs, we will look extremely good if it turns out to be a declining year for the Dow or quite bad if it is a strongly
advancing year. Over the years, work-outs have provided our second largest category. At any given time, we
may be in ten to fifteen of these; some just beginning and others in the late stage of their development. I believe
in using borrowed money to offset a portion of our work-out portfolio since there is a high degree of safety in
this category in terms of both eventual results and intermediate market behavior. Results, excluding the benefits
derived from the use of borrowed money, usually fall in the 10% to 20% range. My self-imposed limit regarding
borrowing is 25% of partnership net worth.
Oftentimes we owe no money and when we do borrow, it is only as
an offset against work-outs.
The final category is "control" situations where we either control the company or take a very large position and
attempt to influence policies of the company. Such operations should definitely be measured on the basis of
several years. In a given year, they may produce nothing as it is usually to our advantage to have the stock be
stagnant market-wise for a long period while we are acquiring it. These situations, too, have relatively little in
common with the behavior of the Dow. Sometimes, of course, we buy into a general with the thought in mind
that it might develop into a control situation. If the price remains low enough for a long period, this might very
well happen. If it moves up before we have a substantial percentage of the company's stock, we sell at higher
levels and complete a successful general operation.
We are presently acquiring stock in what may turn out to be
control situations several years hence.
20 Dempster Mill Manufacturing Company
We are presently involved in the control of Dempster Mill Manufacturing Company of Beatrice, Nebraska. Our
first stock was purchased as a generally undervalued security five years ago. A block later became available, and
I went on the Board about four years ago. In August 1961, we obtained majority control, which is indicative of
the fact that many of our operations are not exactly of the "overnight" variety.
Presently we own 70% of the stock of Dempster with another 10% held by a few associates. With only 150 or so
other stockholders, a market on the stock is virtually non-existent, and in any case, would have no meaning for a
controlling block. Our own actions in such a market could drastically affect the quoted price.
Therefore, it is necessary for me to estimate the value at yearend of our controlling interest.
This is of particular
importance since, in effect, new partners are buying in based upon this price, and old partners are selling a
portion of their interest based upon the same price. The estimated value should not be what we hope it would be
worth, or what it might be worth to an eager buyer, etc., but what I would estimate our interest would bring if
sold under current conditions in a reasonably short period of time. Our efforts will be devoted toward increasing
this value, and we feel there are decent prospects of doing this.
Dempster is a manufacturer of farm implements and water systems with sales in 1961 of about $9 million.
Operations have produced only nominal profits in relation to invested capital during recent years. This reflected
a poor management situation, along with a fairly tough industry situation.
Presently, consolidated net worth
(book value) is about $4.5 million, or $75 per share, consolidated working capital about $50 per share, and at
yearend we valued our interest at $35 per share. While I claim no oracular vision in a matter such as this, I feel
this is a fair valuation to both new and old partners. Certainly, if even moderate earning power can be restored, a
higher valuation will be justified, and even if it cannot, Dempster should work out at a higher figure. Our
controlling interest was acquired at an average price of about $28, and this holding currently represents 21% of
partnership net assets based on the $35 value.
Of course, this section of our portfolio is not going to be worth more money merely because General Motors,
U.S. Steel, etc., sell higher. In a raging bull market, operations in control situations will seem like a very
difficult way to make money, compared to just buying the general market.
However, I am more conscious of the
dangers presented at current market levels than the opportunities. Control situations, along with work-outs,
provide a means of insulating a portion of our portfolio from these dangers.
The Question of Conservatism
The above description of our various areas of operation may provide some clues as to how conservatively our
portfolio is invested. Many people some years back thought they were behaving in the most conservative
manner by purchasing medium or long-term municipal or government bonds. This policy has produced
substantial market depreciation in many cases, and most certainly has failed to maintain or increase real buying
power.
Conscious, perhaps overly conscious, of inflation, many people now feel that they are behaving in a
conservative manner by buying blue chip securities almost regardless of price-earnings ratios, dividend yields,
etc.
Without the benefit of hindsight as ill the bond example, I feel this course of action is fraught with danger.
There is nothing at all conservative, in my opinion, about speculating as to just how high a multiplier a greedy
and capricious public will put on earnings.
You will not be right simply because a large number of people momentarily agree with you. You will not be
right simply because important people agree with you. In many quarters the simultaneous occurrence of the two
above factors is enough to make a course of action meet the test of conservatism.
21 You will be right, over the course of many transactions, if your hypotheses are correct, your facts are correct,
and your reasoning is correct. True conservatism is only possible through knowledge and reason.
I might add that in no way does the fact that our portfolio is not conventional prove that we are more
conservative or less conservative than standard methods of investing.
This can only be determined by examining
the methods or examining the results.
I feel the most objective test as to just how conservative our manner of investing is arises through evaluation of
performance in down markets. Preferably these should involve a substantial decline in the Dow. Our
performance in the rather mild declines of 1957 and 1960 would confirm my hypothesis that we invest in an
extremely conservative manner. I would welcome any partner’s suggesting objective tests as to conservatism to
see how we stack up. We have never suffered a realized loss of more than 0.5% of 1% of total net assets, and
our ratio of total dollars of realized gains to total realized losses is something like 100 to 1. Of course; this
reflects the fact that on balance we have been operating in an up market.
However, there have been many
opportunities for loss transactions even in markets such as these (you may have found out about a few of these
yourselves) so I think the above facts have some significance.
The Question of Size
Aside from the question as to what happens upon my death (which with a metaphysical twist, is a subject of
keen interest to me), I am probably asked most often: "What affect is the rapid growth of partnership funds
going to have upon performance?”
Larger funds tug in two directions. From the standpoint of "passive" investments, where we do not attempt by
the size of our investment to influence corporate policies, larger sums hurt results. For the mutual fund or trust
department investing in securities with very broad markets, the effect of large sums should be to penalize results
only very slightly.
Buying 10,000 shares of General Motors is only slightly more costly (on the basis of
mathematical expectancy) than buying 1,000 or 100 shares.
In some of the securities in which we deal (but not all by any means) buying 10,000 shares is much more
difficult than buying 100 and is sometimes impossible. Therefore, for a portion of our portfolio, larger sums are
definitely disadvantageous. For a larger portion of the portfolio, I would say increased sums are only slightly
disadvantageous. This category includes most of our work-outs and some generals.
However, in the case of control situations increased funds are a definite advantage. A "Sanborn Map" cannot be
accomplished without the wherewithal. My definite belief is that the opportunities increase in this field as the
funds increase.
This is due to the sharp fall-off in competition as the ante mounts plus the important positive
correlation that exists between increased size of company and lack of concentrated ownership of that company's
stock.
Which is more important -- the decreasing prospects of profitability in passive investments or the increasing
prospects in control investments? I can't give a definite answer to this since to a great extent it depends on the
type of market in which we are operating. My present opinion is that there is no reason to think these should not
be offsetting factors; if my opinion should change, you will be told.
I can say, most assuredly, that our results in
1960 and 1961 would not have been better if we had been operating with the much smaller sums of 1956 and
And a Prediction
22 Regular readers (I may be flattering myself) will feel I have left the tracks when I start talking about predictions.
This is one thing from which I have always shied away and I still do in the normal sense.
I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or
two since I don't have the faintest idea.
I think you can be quite sure that over the next ten years there are going to be a few years when the general
market is plus 20% or 25%, a few when it is minus on the same order, and a majority when it is in between.
I
haven't any notion as to the sequence in which these will occur, nor do I think it is of any great importance for
the long-term investor.
Over any long period of years, I think it likely that the Dow will probably produce something like 5% to 7% per
year compounded from a combination of dividends and market value gain. Despite the experience of recent
years, anyone expecting substantially better than that from the general market probably faces disappointment.
Our job is to pile up yearly advantages over the performance of the Dow without worrying too much about
whether the absolute results in a given year are a plus or a minus. I would consider a year in which we were
down 15% and the Dow declined 25% to be much superior to a year when both the partnership and the Dow
advanced 20%. I have stressed this point in talking with partners and have watched them nod their heads with
varying degrees of enthusiasm.
It is most important to me that you fully understand my reasoning in this regard
and agree with me not only in your cerebral regions, but also down in the pit of your stomach.
For the reasons outlined in my method of operation, our best years relative to the Dow are likely to be in
declining or static markets. Therefore, the advantage we seek will probably come in sharply varying amounts.
There are bound to be years when we are surpassed by the Dow, but if over a long period we can average ten
percentage points per year better than it, I will feel the results have been satisfactory.
Specifically, if the market should be down 35% or 40% in a year (and I feel this has a high probability of
occurring one year in the next ten--no one knows which one), we should be down only 15% or 20%. If it is more
or less unchanged during the year, we would hope to be up about ten percentage points. If it is up 20% or more,
we would struggle to be up as much.
The consequence of performance such as this over a period of years would
mean that if the Dow produces a 5% to 7% per year overall gain compounded, I would hope our results might be
15% to 17% per year.
The above expectations may sound somewhat rash, and there is no question but that they may appear very much
so when viewed from the vantage point of 1965 or 1970. It may turn out that I am completely wrong. However,
I feel the partners are certainly entitled to know what I am thinking in this regard even though the nature of the
business is such as to introduce a high probability of error in such expectations. In anyone year, the variations
may be quite substantial. This happened in 1961, but fortunately the variation was on the pleasant side. They
won't all be!
Miscellaneous
We are now installed in an office at 810 Kiewit Plaza with a first-class secretary, Beth Henley, and an associate
with considerable experience in my type of securities, Bill Scott.
My father is sharing office space with us (he
also shares the expenses) and doing a brokerage business in securities. None of our brokerage is done through
him so we have no "vicuna coat" situation.
Overall, I expect our overhead, excluding interest on borrowings and Nebraska Intangibles Tax, to run less than
0.5 of 1% of net assets. We should get our money's worth from this expenditure, and you are most cordially
invited to drop in and see how the money is being spent.
23 With over 90 partners and probably 40 or so securities, you can understand that it is quite a welcome relief to
me to shake loose from some of the details.
We presently have partners residing in locations from California to Vermont, and net assets at the beginning of
1962 amounted to $ 7,178,500.00. Susie and I have an interest in the partnership amounting to $1,025,000.00,
and other relatives of mine have a combined interest totaling $782,600.00.
The minimum for new partners last
year was $25,000, but I am giving some thought to increasing it this year.
Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Company did an excellent job of expediting the audit, providing tax figures much
earlier than in the past. They assure me this performance can be continued.
Let me hear from you regarding questions you may have on any aspects of this letter, your audit, status of your
partnership interest, etc. that may puzzle you.
Cordially Warren E.
Buffett.
24 APPENDIX
Partnerships Operating Throughout 1961
Partnership
1/1/61 Capital at
Market
Overall Gain in 1961*
Percentage Gain
Buffett Associates
486,874.27
225,387.80
46.3%
Buffett Fund
351,839.29
159,696.93
45.4%
Dacee
235,480.31
116,504.47
49.5%
Emdee
140,005.24
67,387.28
48.1%
Glenoff
78,482.70
39,693.80
50.5%
Mo-Buff
325,844.71
149,163.71
45.8%
Underwood
582,256.82
251,951.26
43.3%
2,200,783.34
1,009,785.25
45.9%
Partnerships Started in 1961
Partnership
Paid-in
Overall Gain in 1961
Percentage Gain
Ann Investments
100,100 (1-30-61)
35,367.93
35.3%
Buffett-TD
250,100 ($200,100 on 3-8-
61, $50,000 on 5-31-61)
70,294.08
28.1%
Buffett-Holland
125,100 (5-17-61)
16,703.76
13.3%
- Gain in net assets at market values plus payments to limited partners during year.